Oscar Nomination Predictions - 2019
Oscar season is in full swing. Nomination ballots are in, campaigns are running heavy and the long knives are just about to come out. On Tuesday, Tracee Ellis Ross and Kumail Nanjiani will reveal who is nominated for an Academy Award this year. Predicting who will be nominated is always a crapshoot, but let’s look at how the categories break down at this very moment and make some gut calls about who’s in and who’s out.
Best Picture
This is the most marquee award of the night and is often the most unpredictable. That’s in large part because not only do you have to decide what will make it in, but also how how many. A few years ago, the Academy adopted a system that means that anywhere from five to ten films can be nominated. This is the only category that works like that and the math is very complicated. The main thing to remember is that it is almost impossible for there to be five nominees and it is almost impossible for there to be ten.
The two movies that are locks to get nominated are A Star Is Born and Roma. Each has been highlighted by just about every precursor needed and has shown strength throughout the season. Green Book was once considered a frontrunner, but it’s unclear how controversies surrounding it will impact its chances. Regardless, it’s like a lock for a nomination
BlacKkKlansman is the Academy’s chance to show Spike Lee the love they never have and Black Panther represents the superhero sub-genre’s best chance at making it into the lineup since The Dark Knight failed to almost a decade ago.
This field seems strong enough for nine films to work their way in, and if that’s true, these are the nine that likely make the cut.
A Star Is Born
Roma
Green Book
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beal Street Could Talk
Potential Spoilers: Mary Poppins Returns, First Man
Best Director
This category usually correlates pretty strongly with Best Picture. Generally, the five nominees will be directors of five of the films above. The three locks for a nomination here are the three who have led the conversation all season—Alfonso Cuaron, Bradley Cooper and Spike Lee. Alfonso Cuaron has won the award before (for Gravity) and is a heavy favorite to win again this year. But Bradley Cooper is an often-nominated actor who directs himself in one of the year’s biggest hits. And Spike Lee has been criminally underappreciated by the Academy throughout his career. A surprise is definitely possible.
For the last two spots, there are a few people in contention. The one thing that makes this category unpredictable is the controversies surrounding Green Book. Peter Farrelly was once a safe bet here, but just about everyone involved in the film has put their foot in their mouth and it’s tough to say what the impact might be.
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Potential Spoilers: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favorite; Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
There has been a big three here for most of the season and that remains the case. Glenn Close, Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman have all gotten their share of the precursor love. They are all safe.
After that, things get a little dicier. Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? is probably the next up. She is a previous nominee and the performances are the one thing from her movie that people love. Yalitza Aparicio is in one of the most beloved movies of the year and might just (deservedly) get swept in on the Roma wave.
But there are a lot of women on the periphery that could pop up. Viola Davis in Widows? Elsie Fisher in Eighth Grade? If I had my way, we’d see both Viola Davis and Toni Collette for Hereditary make the cut. It’s possible there is an off the wall nomination coming, but my sense is it will go something like the below.
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Potential Spoilers: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns; Viola Davis, Widows
Best Actor
At one point, Viggo Mortensen looked like he was far out front. But certain missteps have brought him back to the pack. Since then, he has been trading blows with Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek. The question that remains is who will fill the fifth slot. The most likely contender is John David Washington for Blackkklansman, but Ethan Hawke for First Reformed is right on his heels. Let’s see if John David Washington and Denzel Washington can become the first father and son ever nominated for acting Oscars.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington,BlacKkKlansman
Potential Spoilers: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed; Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Supporting Actress
This is the rare category that looks pretty set. Regina King has been the frontrunner for much of the season, but she did miss out on SAG and BAFTA nominations for somewhat complicated reasons. It would be a shock if those snubs carry over to Oscar.
The other four spots here are more or less locked in.
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Potential Spoilers: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place; Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Supporting Actor
Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I want to deviate from conventional wisdom. There’s a standard/chalk five here, but it hurts my head to imagine Tomotheé Chalamet getting nominated over Michael B. Jordan. Michael B. Jordan redefined the Marvel villain with his portrayal of Killmonger in Black Panther. It could be pie in the sky, and that superhero stigma could hold it back, but I want to have faith in the Academy’s new membership.
Mahershala Ali, Richard E. Grant and Sam Elliott have lead this category all season, so my final picks look something like this.
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Potential Spoilers: Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy; Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Black Panther
A Star Is Born
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
Vice
Eighth Grade
Potential Spoilers: A Quiet Place,First Reformed
Cinematography
Roma
Cold War
A Star Is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Potential Spoilers: First Man, Black Panther
Costume Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns
Potential Spoilers: Crazy Rich Asians; Fantastic Beasts 2
Film Editing
Roma
First Man
A Star Is Born
Black Panter
Vice
Potential Spoilers: The Favourite; BlacKkKlansman
Makeup and Hair
Vice
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Potential Spoilers: Border; Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
Potential Spoilers: Crazy Rich Asians; First Man
Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Potential Spoilers: A Quiet Place; Isle of Dogs
Song
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Mary Poppins Returns
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
Potential Spoilers: “Revelation,”Boy Erased; “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Sound Mixing
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma
Visual Effects
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
First Man
Solo: A Star Wars
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Free Solo
Three Identical Strangers
Minding the Gap
RBG
Foreign Language Film
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Capernaum
Burning
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